THE GRID UNDER LOAD
Why electricity, not oil, may be the defining scarcity of the century.
Summary
Electrification of transport, heating and computation is converging on a grid built for a slower, smaller world. This File documents the race between demand growth and the slow physics of transmission.
The grid is the least visible critical system and the hardest to expand: permitting, transformers and high-voltage lines move on decade timescales.
Timeline
- 2021
Demand inflection
Electric vehicles and datacenters begin materially bending long-flat electricity demand curves upward.
- 2024
Transformer shortage
Lead times for large power transformers stretch to years, exposing a hidden bottleneck.
Key Actors
Stewards of the high-voltage backbone
Fast-growing, location-flexible load
Related Files
Signals
Large power transformer lead times are again being quoted in years, reinforcing the binding constraint identified in FILE #003.
Datacenter siting decisions are increasingly driven by grid interconnection availability rather than land or tax — FILE #002 and FILE #003 are converging.
Open Questions
- ?Can transmission build-out accelerate without a fundamental change in permitting regimes?
Sources
- Grid capacity and interconnection queues — public filings · 2024
